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  • 26 Oct, 2025
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Kenya’s Trade Volumes under AfCTA & Expected Policy Shifts

Kenya’s Trade Volumes under AfCTA & Expected Policy Shifts

Kenya's AfCFTA strategy aims to boost industrialization through value-added exports in textiles, pharmaceuticals, and more. Exports to Africa rose over 20% in 2023–24. Policy shifts in 2025 will enhance trade facilitation, diversify revenue, and support SMEs, positioning Kenya for deeper regional integration and competitiveness.

Executive Summary

Kenya's AfCFTA Strategic Plan seeks to increase value-added manufacturing in important industries such as light engineering, textiles, leather and pharmaceuticals in order to promote industrialization. Although COMESA and the East African Community have close trade relations, markets in West and North Africa have room to grow. Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Africa were among the top export destinations in 2023 and 2024, with exports to African states rising by 21.4% and 26%, respectively.

Introduction and Background

In order to optimize the advantages of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this report provides important suggestions for Kenyan government and corporate negotiators. Although commerce in Kenya has expanded as a result of the AfCFTA, there are still a lot of unexplored prospects. This study highlights the necessity of a multipronged strategy that prioritizes boosting regional integration, removing trade obstacles, and improving competitiveness.

Data and Analysis

2022 Trade Statistics of Kenya
• Egypt had the highest import value at $373 million.
• Uganda led in exports with over $820 million.
• Rwanda and Tanzania were significant importers of Kenyan exports, with exports exceeding $341 million and $480 million, respectively.
• Equatorial Guinea and Guinea-Bissau showed little trade activity.
• Sub-Saharan Africa's exports were about $2.67 billion, and imports were about $1.79 billion, indicating a significant trade deficit.

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Data Source:  World Integrated Trade Solution

Key Findings

Kenya is anticipated to make a number of policy changes in 2025 in order to optimize the advantages of the AfCFTA
1) Revenue Diversification: The government aims to increase efforts to diversify sources of income in order to make up for losses in tariff revenue. 
2) Strengthening Trade Agreements: The government has begun to fortify trade agreements with other AfCFTA members as well as regional economic bodies. 
3) Consumer protection and social safety nets: The government has implemented measures to safeguard vulnerable populations from the adverse effects of trade liberalization.
4) Value-Added Export Promotion: The government has encouraged the export of more value-added commodities in an effort to increase profitability and competitiveness in the African market. 
5) Infrastructure and Trade Facilitation: The government has prioritized investments in digital trade platforms and transportation networks in order to encourage more smooth trade flows.

Important Growth Sectors

a) Textiles and apparel: There are a lot of chances to increase exports.

b) Pharmaceuticals: This industry is given priority due to the rising market need.

c) Automotive Components: More manufacturing and exports are the goal.

d) Agribusiness: Two crucial areas for growth are processed goods and fresh produce.

Recommendations

A) Recommendations for Kenyan Businesses

+ Increase Competitiveness in Exports
– Make investments in certification and quality enhancement procedures.
– Use the tariff reductions provided by the AfCFTA to gain market share.

+ Increase the Variety of Products Offered
– Pay attention to industries with great potential, such as electronics, automotive components and cosmetics.
– Create products with added value using raw ingredients.

Asses competitiveness in regional markets using the Guided Trade Initiative (GTI).
– Work together to obtain export certifications with government organizations.

+ Increase Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises Involvement
– Make training programs and funding more accessible.
– Encourage women and young people to participate in order to foster inclusivity.

+ Adopt Innovation & Technology

B) Recommendations for Government Negotiators

– Promote the gradual removal of tariffs on exports from Kenya.

– Put in place trade facilitation strategies, such as expediting logistics and customs.

– Make institutional foundations for the execution of the AfCFTA stronger.

– Encourage regional value chains and pinpoint important areas for focus.

– Run educational initiatives and teach negotiators on the ins and outs of international trade and negotiation techniques.

References

Unlocking Opportunities for Kenya’s Industrialization through the African Continental Free Trade Area

AfCFTA_Policy_Brief_Final.pdf

GREEN SUPPLEMENT TO THE NATIONAL AFCFTA IMPLEMENTATION STRATEGY AND ACTION PLAN FOR KENYA FOCUSING ON THE COFFEE AND TEA SECTORS