Stock Performance Analysis: January to September

Introduction

This report presents a detailed analysis of stock performance across multiple sectors, based on cumulative monthly fluctuations. The objective is to identify top- and bottom-performing companies, highlight sector-wide trends and extract insights that can support informed investment decisions.

The analysis covers:

• Company rankings: Identifying the best- and worst-performing stocks by cumulative TOTAL change.
• Sector performance: Evaluating sector averages to determine areas of strength and weakness.
• Trend evaluation: Assessing whether gains are consistent or concentrated in a few outliers.
• Investment recommendations: Translating findings into practical guidance for portfolio construction and risk management.

By combining company-level and sector-level perspectives, this report provides a structured overview of current market dynamics, uncovering both opportunities for growth and potential areas of caution.

Data and Analysis

Top 10 Performing Stocks (by TOTAL)

1. Sameer Africa Plc — 208.56 (Commercial)
2. Home Afrika Ltd — 144.62 (Investment)
3. Trans-Century Plc — 106.49 (Investment)
4. E.A. Portland Cement Co. Ltd — 101.23 (Construction)
5. Express Kenya Plc — 97.31 (Commercial)
6. Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd — 86.73 (Investment)
7. Liberty Kenya Holdings Ltd — 86.22 (Insurance)
8. Eaagands Ltd — 86.21 (Agricultural)
9. KenGen Co. Plc — 83.51 (Energy)
10. Kenya Power & Lighting Co. Plc — 83.06 (Energy)

Bottom 10 Performing Stocks (by TOTAL)

1. Umeme Ltd — -54.09 (Energy)
2. Kenya Airways Ltd — -45.86 (Commercial)
3. Nairobi Business Ventures Plc — -10.43 (Commercial)
4. Bamburi Cement Plc — -6.35 (Construction)
5. Standard Chartered Bank Kenya Ltd — -2.24 (Banking)
6. Kenya Orchards Ltd — -2.08 (Manufacturing & Allied)
7. Nation Media Group Plc — -1.22 (Commercial)
8. Deacons (East Africa) Plc — 0.00 (Commercial)
9. Homeboyz Entertainment Plc — 0.00 (Commercial)
10. ARM Cement Plc — 0.00 (Construction)

Sector Performance

Top 3 Sectors (by Mean TOTAL per Company)

1. Investment Services — 79.38 (1 company)
2. Investment — 75.78 (5 companies)
3. Insurance — 65.34 (6 companies)

Bottom 3 Sectors (by Mean TOTAL per Company)

1. Banking — 24.67 (11 companies)
2. Exchange Traded Funds — 21.95 (2 companies)
3. Real Estate Investment Trusts — 0.00 (2 companies)

Key Insights

• Concentration of gains: A few companies, such as Sameer Africa and Home Afrika, drove outsized positive returns, strongly influencing their sector averages.
• Mixed Energy sector: While KenGen and Kenya Power performed strongly, Umeme posted the lowest overall result, highlighting volatility in this sector.
• Weak banking performance: Despite having many listed companies, the banking sector delivered low average TOTALs, indicating underperformance or stagnation.
• REITs and ETFs lagged: These segments recorded little to no movement, suggesting limited investor activity or flat price action during the period.
• Sectoral dispersion: Both Commercial and Construction sectors contained some of the best and worst performers, underscoring the need for company-level analysis rather than relying solely on sector averages.

Recommendations for Investors

1. Diversify holdings across strong sectors such as Investment, Insurance and Energy, while avoiding over-concentration in any single company.
2. Scrutinize top performers (e.g., Sameer Africa, Home Afrika, Trans-Century) to confirm whether gains are sustainable through solid fundamentals or driven by short-term fluctuations.
3. Exercise caution in Energy, selecting proven performers (KenGen, Kenya Power) while avoiding weaker names like Umeme unless backed by a clear turnaround case.
4. Be selective in Banking — sector-wide performance is weak, but individual banks may still present opportunities.
5. Treat laggards as speculative plays — bottom-ranked companies such as Kenya Airways and Umeme carry higher risk and should only be considered by investors with strong risk tolerance.
6. Use rebalancing strategies to lock in profits from winners and manage exposure to volatile sectors.
7. Match investments with horizon — short-term traders should focus on liquidity and momentum, while long-term investors should favor fundamentally strong, consistently growing firms.

Conclusion

The stock performance analysis reveals a market characterized by wide disparities across companies and sectors. While select companies delivered exceptional returns, several sectors showed signs of weakness or stagnation. Investors should adopt a balanced approach, blending exposure to high-growth sectors with caution around underperforming industries. Ultimately, careful stock selection, ongoing monitoring and portfolio diversification will be essential to capturing growth while managing downside risk.